Markets accustom investors to constant rewards, lowering emotional barrier to risk. Ticket to participate in the last race thus becomes increasingly expensive in terms of risk: it will be a bloodbath
Sure, I have said that. I also said that although company multiples may stay higher for longer, there is always a time when macro and markets tend to back to the mean.
True, SAP and Siemens are two giants and weigh about 20% in the DAX basket. More generally, almost all sectors are performing strongly: rotation at the moment is not sectoral but country.
thanks for reply. you wrote march 21 but we are on the 27th and the dax still continues on the upward path. is something wrong? are you expecting an even more extreme phase?
As I wrote this morning on my profiles, if I knew exactly where DAX and markets in general were going, I would not be here but would be enjoying life under a palm tree with a drink in my hand. The reality is quite different because markets are irrational and can remain so for much longer than our money. Top expected extension was 18.400: today we are at 18.500 and we are in cyclical confusion. We have to wait and wait for the greed to disappear.
I'm glad my first interaction is with you, Eric. Your thinking is perfectly congruent with the current market situation. Following the trend is never wrong but I have been in the market too long to understand that history repeats itself, in different forms and ways, but it constantly repeats its rhythms. And it will be no different this time either. I have said this in times of depression and euphoria. I don't take sides, just facts.
Absolutely I'm a huge momentum trader. Didn't mean any disrespect. Was talking how outcomes in the markets don't care about one's feelings. I used to tie myself to my positions more. Its best practice to always look at the reality one is dead wrong. Like I could be with AI being in a bubble.
Discussing among civilized people in a gentle way in my opinion is always a time of growth for everyone. Discussions fuel ideas. In any case, in my experience there are no better methods than others but only different interpretations with different timeframes. Some people look at short-term (traders), some look at the very short-term (scalpers) and some try to stay invested in the long term (investors). There is room in the markets for everyone to take or leave money!
I quote my comment from this morning on X and Notes: "My analysis wasn't done randomly, but numbers. Natural cycle (setup date) was triggered on top in March. DAX has mostly consolidated, lengthening in the final part of the cycle, coinciding with technical expirations. Now scenario is confirmed and today we may have triggered the cycle."
macro economy is not the financial market...you said it in old post
Sure, I have said that. I also said that although company multiples may stay higher for longer, there is always a time when macro and markets tend to back to the mean.
dax rises behind Nasdaq because it has become a technology index
True: as of today, DAX is composed of more than 30% technology.
SAP and Siemens are still pushing hard. The impact of AI could continue for years
True, SAP and Siemens are two giants and weigh about 20% in the DAX basket. More generally, almost all sectors are performing strongly: rotation at the moment is not sectoral but country.
Love your charts! Do you think we are at a turning point in the markets?
Cycles expired on February 29, max extension for tomorrow, March 21. In a single word, YES. We are at a market turning point.
thanks for reply. you wrote march 21 but we are on the 27th and the dax still continues on the upward path. is something wrong? are you expecting an even more extreme phase?
As I wrote this morning on my profiles, if I knew exactly where DAX and markets in general were going, I would not be here but would be enjoying life under a palm tree with a drink in my hand. The reality is quite different because markets are irrational and can remain so for much longer than our money. Top expected extension was 18.400: today we are at 18.500 and we are in cyclical confusion. We have to wait and wait for the greed to disappear.
It started Q2 without retracement. If it doesn't even go down now it will be a summer of fire!
When everyone starts thinking that no downturn is possible, here comes...
It sounds like exactly what you said is happening
I try.. not every trade but to visually go through various outcomes. Being caught off guard is the worst way to handle a situation or trade.
Expect the unexpected and take every outcome as they come. It’s nothing personal.
I'm glad my first interaction is with you, Eric. Your thinking is perfectly congruent with the current market situation. Following the trend is never wrong but I have been in the market too long to understand that history repeats itself, in different forms and ways, but it constantly repeats its rhythms. And it will be no different this time either. I have said this in times of depression and euphoria. I don't take sides, just facts.
Absolutely I'm a huge momentum trader. Didn't mean any disrespect. Was talking how outcomes in the markets don't care about one's feelings. I used to tie myself to my positions more. Its best practice to always look at the reality one is dead wrong. Like I could be with AI being in a bubble.
Discussing among civilized people in a gentle way in my opinion is always a time of growth for everyone. Discussions fuel ideas. In any case, in my experience there are no better methods than others but only different interpretations with different timeframes. Some people look at short-term (traders), some look at the very short-term (scalpers) and some try to stay invested in the long term (investors). There is room in the markets for everyone to take or leave money!
Do you think today is the final high on the dax?
I quote my comment from this morning on X and Notes: "My analysis wasn't done randomly, but numbers. Natural cycle (setup date) was triggered on top in March. DAX has mostly consolidated, lengthening in the final part of the cycle, coinciding with technical expirations. Now scenario is confirmed and today we may have triggered the cycle."
thank you for the reply!
You're welcome