DAX Outlook, February 2024 Update

The October setup marked time and price to new all-time highs above 17K: time is now up and new bearish angular forces are pushing for a correction

We live in a wonderful world. A world where the locomotive of Europe, Germany, has certified the recessionary state of economy with a shrinking GDP for 2024. A world where Germany's top 5 companies outperform 90% of the index and where small and mid-sized companies are in a stagnant crisis. Yet the DAX Index continues to record all-time highs above 17,000 points, but all that glitters is not gold. The inflation story is far from over, as Christine Lagarde explained repeatedly at the last European Central Bank meeting.

Germany has its version of Magnificent 5: DAX Price Index consisting of SAP SE , Siemens AG, Allianz SE, Munich Re, and Deutsche Telekom has outperformed by almost 90% over a 10 years period.

But what is happening to the German stock market? What are causes behind the price movements of recent years? What lies ahead in February and what is the Outlook until the end of Q1? Let's dig in and explore the Master Time Cycle time map and the path marked by time-price factor.

Just to put things in perspective, bearish time ranges of DAX Index have decreased over time due to turnover within the index: out with the bad apples in with only the healthy stocks | Dax Trading Ideas ®

Viviamo in un mondo fantastico. Un mondo dove la locomotiva d’Europa, la Germania, ha certificato lo stato recessivo dell’economia con un PIL in contrazione per il 2024. Un mondo dove le 5 migliori aziende tedesche sovra-performano il 90% dell’indice e dove le piccole e medie imprese sono in una crisi stagnante. Eppure l’Indice DAX continua a registrare massimi storici sopra i 17,000 punti, ma non è tutto oro quello che luccica. La storia dell’inflazione è tutt’altro che finita, come ha spiegato più volte Christine Lagarde durante l’ultimo meeting della Banca Centrale Europea.

La Germania ha la sua versione dei magnifici 5: il DAX Price Index, composto da SAP SE, Siemens AG, Allianz SE, Munich Re e Deutsche Telekom, ha sovraperformato di quasi il 90% su un periodo di 10 anni.

Ma cosa sta succedendo al mercato azionario tedesco? Quali sono le cause dietro i movimenti dei prezzi degli ultimi anni? Cosa ci aspetta a Febbraio e quali sono le prospettive fino alla fine del 1° trimestre? Scaviamo a fondo ed esploriamo la mappa temporale Master Time Cycle e il percorso segnato dal fattore tempo-prezzo.

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Trading plan, setup dates and square of the range expiration

October 2023 was one of the best rallies scored in the history of financial markets and the DAX index. The range square crashed in perfect timing at the year's expiration, setting up the selling top on January 2, 2024. From that signal, in conjunction with triggering of the mid-cycles we followed and explained in the January Outlook, we projected a target for the landing area at about 16,200 Index. The obstacle that came between our targets was the angle started on October 27, 2023, a very powerful setup where price balanced time: this support area quickly reversed prices, anticipating the closing of bearish mid-cycle and generating a very powerful signal that cancelled the subsequent «reverse» expected on January 25, 2024.